Hunter Greene’s potential as a starter is obvious. A triple-digit fastball with a devastating slider is an easy decision for a first-round draft pick. The results before 2024 hadn’t met the expectations of anyone, but so far Greene has started to look like the ace so many waited for. I’ll show how he’s putting it all together.
Improved Control
Control is the pitchers ability to throw strikes. Greene is currently throwing the highest rate of strikes in his career, and it’s not close. By keeping more of his pitches in the zone, he forces batters to protect the plate. So far, he’s throwing strikes at the highest rate of his career. This has also helped him lengthen each start, giving him better opportunities to finish in the 6th and 7th innings.
Improved Command
Command is defined as a pitcher’s ability to hit spots inside the strike zone. For example; a hitter will respond to middle-middle fastball differently than a low-away fastball. We can see Greene is hitting spots by inducing weak contact and poor launch angles. The home run rate that plagued the last two years has dropped, his exit velocity has dropped, and the sweet spot rate has dropped. Guys aren’t making the kind of hard contact that ruined Greene’s starts his first two seasons.
Decreased Fastball Velocity
There’s a moment in the film Bull Durham where veteran minor-league catcher Crash Davis explains to the young phenom Ebby Calvin LaLoosh about how important getting ground balls is and not try to strike everyone out. It’s easily the first thing that comes to mind as I see as he hits a career-low in fastball velocity. It’s also important to note his fastball is still above average in spite of the downward trend.
My guess is that some combination of Frankie Montas’ veteran presence and Greene’s own growth helped him realize that going deeper into the game is more fun than lighting up the radar gun. In an era of baseball where maximum effort and short outings dominate the headlines, Greene is starting to craft a repertoire that will be uniquely his.